Do You Know what You Think You Know?

about a year ago, i had a conversation with a friend about the oft-reported stats regarding black women and the chances we have of marrying and having children compared to other women of other races. the stats we discussed, of course, were pretty grim. Yet, my friend in all seriousness said "yeah, but i don't know if i even believe those numbers. who's to say they are accurate?"

whaaaaaat? what is this crazy theory to spout? question STATISTICS????

her statement led to a greater conversation about how the "negro condition" is more usually viewed through a lens of dysfunction rather than positivity and how people just accept the negative information as if it's gospel. this week i was made aware of an amazing example of this phenomenon in action.

how many of us have heard the statement "In the United States, there are more Black Men in Prison than there are In College?" and how many of us have said to ourselves and others "That's a Shame and We MUST Find an Answer to this Problem!"

now what if i told you that that particular "fact" about black men is based on data which was skewed?

what if i told you that, using comparable data to include other variables other than just race, the ratio of black men in college actually overshadows those in prison?

"The numbers in question from the Justice Policy Institute report come from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the National Center for Education Statistics. The report indicates that there were an estimated 791,600 black men in jail and prison in 2000 and a count of 603,032 in college in 1999. Mr. Morton agrees with the jail and prison number but asserts in his blog that the more reliable U.S. Census Bureau reports that there were 816,000 black men in college in 2000. In the film, he makes comparisons using the same data sources for 2005 and states this number to be 864,000. Furthermore, he argues that it is bad practice to use the entire age range of black males when making these comparisons, because the age range for college-going males is generally 18 to 24, not the 18 to 55 (and up) range of the jail and prison population. Viewed this way, the ratio of black men in college compared with jail and prison is 4-to-1."
- Michael Strambler (Baltimore Sun)

now what i'm not going to do is get into the possible conspiracy theories that could explain how and why the popular "fact" came to be part of our everyday knowledge. but i do find it curious that something as simple as drawing comparisons between two groups which are not exactly alike, something that would get a freshman called to the carpet in an entry level college statistical analysis class, could get past data analysts and peer reviewers.

and i find it sad that most of us accepted that information as fact as soon as we heard it. many of us didn't even bat an eye and thing to ourselves "now what a minute!"

it's caused me to take a second look at many facts i have internalized throughout my life. and it's made me committed to not just accepting negative information as unequivocal fact just because it's supported by statistical data which may or may not have been manipulated to support the fact!

i'm not saying i'm going to turn into a homeless, deranged conspiracy theorist. i'm just saying: i'm gonna look a little bit deeper from here on out. and i invite you to do the same.